Monthly Status of S&P 500 Index

August 1, 2017

Current status is bull market.

EXPLANATION OF MODEL

This chart is derived from our in-house proprietary momentum methodology, the Tactical Momentum System, or TMS.

TMS is based on our belief that major changes in market direction come about first through structural transitions in momentum or rate of change. In other words, momentum precedes price.

A signal is taken when two criteria are met:

  1. Change in momentum occurs determined by a proprietary investment model.
  2. A long-term trend-line is broken.

The chart below shows the last signal and the upward sloping trend-line from the beginning of this bull market. Only when a change in momentum is combined with a break of the long-term blue trend-line can we assume a major reversal in trend has taken place.

Chart

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Halberstadt Financial Consultants, Inc. (“HFC”) is an investment advisory firm registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). Our Firm’s registration with the SEC is not an endorsement of the Firm.

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Hypothetical models developed by Halberstadt Financial Consultants, Inc. are back-tested simulations and are constructed to serve as a general directional forecasting guide for the corresponding underlying financial instruments. The hypothetical performance of the models have limitations. We do not represent that any investment will or is likely to result in profits or losses similar to those shown. Very often, there are sharp differences between hypothetical results and the actual results achieved by a particular investment or trading model. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. Hypothetical trading does not involve putting money at risk and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to stick to a particular trading model in spite of losses are material factors and which can adversely affect results. Because hypothetical results do not involve actual trading, the results do not reflect the deduction of transaction and custodial charges or the deduction of management fees, the occurrence of which will have a negative effect on actual performance. In addition, for reasons including variances in actual holdings; variances in fees and expenses charged; market fluctuation; the date on which investing begins; and any contributions or withdrawals; the performance for a specific investor may vary substantially from the information presented in this material. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.